The future

[Cormanus]

There's an interesting piece by The Bear on ADVRider.com today suggesting the European Union may have consigned the ICE to the dustbin of history.

Goodbye ICE - Adventure Rider

 

[the Ferret]

2035? Won't happen here that quickly, but at 72 I'd venture to say even if it did, it wouldn't affect me or my wife, but it will my children.

If there had been an electric alternative at the same price as my Honda NC 750X DCT, I would have considered it. Not buying gas wouldn't hurt my feelings and would help my pocket book.

If they get the issues worked out (price, range, charging time, charging station availability, battery degradation in cold weather, used battery disposal), electric shouldn't be too bad...quieter, and cleaner for the environment.

But I doubt they will have those issues worked out by 2035 in this country

 

[GoldOxide_imp]

I don't doubt it. Like the steam engine. Like the coal-fired power plant.

This affects a lot of people as governments can tax the heck out of drivers to get off of dino-driven engines. Furthermore, the surviving relicts are moving museum pieces that will be increasingly difficult to fund ownership and have declining asset value if fossil fuel usage becomes "fully evil" and relegated to military use only. However, this will take time. The market is massive and politics even larger. We'll all be rocking in our chairs with glazed yellow-sunken eyes fixated at glitchy GoPro replays of rides long past.

 

[Cormanus]

I suspect the point is that you won't be able to buy a new ICE vehicle in Europe after 2035. The US and Japan are likely to comply with that to the extent that they sell vehicles into Europe. It seems to me it makes it likely that new ICE vehicles will simply not be sold in developed countries after 2035. That said, I suspect it will take a great deal longer to phase out the use of the ICE as many will not be able immediately to afford the transition to a new vehicle and, anyway, supply is unlikely to meet demand.

 

[misterprofessionality]

I have confidence that ill be able to ride dino reliably until my mortal membership card gets revoked, at least for recreation. For commuting and daily life though im starting to come tp terms with the fact that i could be riding electric within 5 years.

 

[GoldOxide_imp]

Starting September 1, 2022 a gasoline powered scooter (including motorcycles) will pay for a full day's parking in Paris, France 37.50 Euros (max). Electric scooters/motorcycles can still park free. There are 10's of thousands of gas scooters in Paris.

 

[Randy B]

2035? Won't happen here that quickly, but at 72 I'd venture to say even if it did, it wouldn't affect me or my wife, but it will my children.

If there had been an electric alternative at the same price as my Honda NC 750X DCT, I would have considered it. Not buying gas wouldn't hurt my feelings and would help my pocket book.

If they get the issues worked out (price, range, charging time, charging station availability, battery degradation in cold weather, used battery disposal), electric shouldn't be too bad...quieter, and cleaner for the environment.

But I doubt they will have those issues worked out by 2035 in this country

I'm going to have to disagree with you a bit here on the cleaner and better for the environment. Sure there won't be tailpipe emissions, but there still will be at the point of power generation. Not to mention that the battery technology used in electric vehicles is TERRIBLE for the environment.
Don't get me wrong, they are the future, but I really don't believe they will ever be a direct replacement for the ICE. I just can't see the flexibility ever being there the way that it is for ICE's, especially for things like tractor trailers and farm equipment. You can't just bring a portable charging station out to a field to recharge a combine in 20 minutes, and that can be disastrous for the crops.
I think there are other ways we can go about this besides condemning the ICE to history. I think that it's a short sighted and a very bad move that is being done for political posturing.
As far as the death of the steam engine, that was organic, not forced. A newer technology that was cleaner, cheaper, and easier to maintain and run came to market, and the market spoke with it's wallet.
What is happening right now is just plain bad all the way around.

My $0.02

 

[tommymck]

Yeah, agree with Randy. I don't deny the current environmental and climate issues, but all of the pearl clutching associated with fuel type only helps at the margins. It's true that electric vehicle emissions are lower than gas powered vehicle emissions, but not by enough to really matter when you take into account the generation part of the energy equation. The only way to create a meaningful impact is to reduce the actual amount of energy required per-capita. That requires behavior change, and good luck with that. Heck, it would make much more of an impact if we forced everybody to ride motorcycles!

 

[GoldOxide_imp]

... but how convenient that conversion would be. Rouge gasoline storage is difficult to control. Electricity is controlled at the throw of a switch. That is pretty easy control of the civilian masses.

Police, emergency and military vehicles will be the last to convert over - if ever in the next 100 years. Before then maybe they will figure out fusion reaction and commercialize it.

Not in our generation, but maybe the next will have to budget and plan an afternoon Sunday ride on the Honda CB1100.

 

[misterprofessionality]

Yeah, agree with Randy. I don't deny the current environmental and climate issues, but all of the pearl clutching associated with fuel type only helps at the margins. It's true that electric vehicle emissions are lower than gas powered vehicle emissions, but not by enough to really matter when you take into account the generation part of the energy equation. The only way to create a meaningful impact is to reduce the actual amount of energy required per-capita. That requires behavior change, and good luck with that. Heck, it would make much more of an impact if we forced everybody to ride motorcycles!

This is where I be the doomer downer and remind everybody that motorcycle emissions are much worse than cars :rofl:

motorcyclists as a group are responsible ffor only a teensy weensy fraction of the overall emissions worldwide, but if EVERYBODY was using gas bikes, emissions would be worse.

The real point of attack if you're talking about global emissions reduction is electricity generation (power plants), shipping oversea, Military vessels, and airplane emissions. The pie chart of pollution of planet earth is dominated by those items.

 

[Tev62]

It is definitely political and being driven by ideologues or those with most to gain but rarely do the activists take a full picture of the consequences of their desired goal. There are much bigger targets for "Greenhouse Gases". Even the liberal UK Guardian Newspaper (2018 article) admits this.

Cows, pigs and other farm livestock in Europe are producing more greenhouse gases every year than all of the bloc’s cars and vans put together, when the impact of their feed is taken into account, according to a new analysis by Greenpeace.

The increase in meat and dairy production in Europe over the past decade has made farming a much greater source of emissions, but while governments have targeted renewable energy and transport in their climate policies, initiatives to reduce the impact of food and farming on the climate have lagged behind.

Ireland's Dairy Herd has grown massively in the last decade and just today the news comes out that the Government haven't a hope on meeting their climate promises, made only in 2021, in part due to the influential farming sector. You don't get voted back in as a politician pis**ng off the farming community!

"Ireland still appears delinquent on climate action Deadline for agreeing sectoral emission ceilings missed as farmers pitted against rest of society".

For transport, approximately 1.4 million Irish households have at least one car. Some 2.2 million vehicles are currently responsible for 18 per cent of emissions. Average household income in 2020 was €52,941 and over half of Irish households carry some form of debt.

These comparisons would imply that, on equity considerations, the bulk of the emissions reductions required by the carbon budget should not fall on the ordinary householder or car owner. Yet this is precisely what is being intended in order to protect the “special economic and social role of agriculture”, specified in the legislation.

 

[bioman_imp]

It is well-known for decades that limiting (or even better: halting) the meat industry would HUGELY limit greenhouse gas production. Even better: making everybody vegetarian would free 75% of our farmland (see e.g. this article).

Of course all this will never happen. Problem is that the farmer's lobby is very (!) strong. And most people (myself included) like to eat meat & eggs and to drink milk. So that is a no-win option for politicians.

ICE-driven vehicles on the other hand can be replaced by vehicles propelled by electrical engines, and most people (myself included) like that idea so many politicians have jumped on it to show that they are doing something at least. But they will not make this planet much greener this way.

 

[rich_imp]

remember the old street cars that had overhead leads that ran to a big grid all over town
instead of ape hangers just contacts to grid

i could do 100 mile range on an Ebike but at a more doable price like $5000

 

[Gone in 60]

I read that they have determined that in California, cars are clean enough that now fast food restaurants put out more pollution.
Aww man, now they're gonna go after my burritos and hamburgers!

I could see riding an electric motorcycle. I loved the Zero SRF that I test rode recently. I didn't love the $20K+ price tag...

 

[SportsterDoc]

I read that they have determined that in California, cars are clean enough that now fast food restaurants put out more pollution.
Aww man, now they're gonna go after my burritos and hamburgers!

I could see riding an electric motorcycle. I loved the Zero SRF that I test rode recently. I didn't love the $20K+ price tag...

One of the Zero models (502#) is 0-60 in 3.7 seconds, only 0.5 seconds slower than the CB, however, it does have more top end (124?).

Have you priced a replacement battery? 2 years ago the 14 KW battery pack was over $7K.

That is a major concern, or should be a major concern, for hybrids and electric vehicles. The battery does have a life and replacement is EXPENSIVE.

 

[Gone in 60]

I read that they have determined that in California, cars are clean enough that now fast food restaurants put out more pollution.
Aww man, now they're gonna go after my burritos and hamburgers!

I could see riding an electric motorcycle. I loved the Zero SRF that I test rode recently. I didn't love the $20K+ price tag...

One of the Zero models (502#) is 0-60 in 3.7 seconds, only 0.5 seconds slower than the CB, however, it does have more top end (124?).

Have you priced a replacement battery? 2 years ago the 14 KW battery pack was over $7K.

That is a major concern, or should be a major concern, for hybrids and electric vehicles. The battery does have a life and replacement is EXPENSIVE.

I ain't payin' over twenty large for a motorcycle... so, no, to answer your question, I have not priced a replacement battery.

 

[GoldOxide_imp]

remember the old street cars that had overhead leads that ran to a big grid all over town
instead of ape hangers just contacts to grid

i could do 100 mile range on an Ebike but at a more doable price like $5000

Yep. Toronto still uses street cars.

 

[Cormanus]

Is a street car what we would call a tram—gets electric power from overhead and runs on rails? Or a trolley bus—gets electric power from overhead but runs on rubber tyres?

 

[GoldOxide_imp]

Is a street car what we would call a tram—gets electric power from overhead and runs on rails? Or a trolley bus—gets electric power from overhead but runs on rubber tyres?

Yes. We here use metal wheels on rails to connect to power ground.



(click on image)

 

[the Ferret]

I read that they have determined that in California, cars are clean enough that now fast food restaurants put out more pollution.
Aww man, now they're gonna go after my burritos and hamburgers!

I could see riding an electric motorcycle. I loved the Zero SRF that I test rode recently. I didn't love the $20K+ price tag...

One of the Zero models (502#) is 0-60 in 3.7 seconds, only 0.5 seconds slower than the CB, however, it does have more top end (124?).

Have you priced a replacement battery? 2 years ago the 14 KW battery pack was over $7K.

That is a major concern, or should be a major concern, for hybrids and electric vehicles. The battery does have a life and replacement is EXPENSIVE.

Have you priced a replacement battery? 2 years ago the 14 KW battery pack was over $7K.

That is a major concern, or should be a major concern, for hybrids and electric vehicles. The battery does have a life and replacement is EXPENSIVE.
Geez the replacement battery cost is just under what I would be willing to pay for a complete motorcycle ($8-10K)