Interesting perspective on MC crashes.

K

kmoney_imp

Road warrior
Thread starter
No Surprise: No Accident

'Motorcycle safety instructor, researcher and advocate Duncan MacKillop was the first presenter at the International Rider Training Symposium. MacKillop, Alf Gasparro, and Kevin Williams are the founders of No Surprise: No Accident – an initiative proposing that motorcycle crashes are largely a product of prediction failures.'

I can definitely agree with some of the points they make, especially re predicting scenarios in traffic. I know of a couple people who had accidents with cars, or near misses, that they probably should have seen coming.
 
I attended a presentation from the CHP several years ago and their underlying message was that all motorcycle accidents are avoidable and are always the fault of the motorcyclist, even when another vehicle violates their right of way. I agree. It's a matter of understanding the risks, even those you can't control, and taking measures to manage or avoid them.
 
LongRanger_imp said:
I attended a presentation from the CHP several years ago and their underlying message was that all motorcycle accidents are avoidable and are always the fault of the motorcyclist, even when another vehicle violates their right of way. I agree. It's a matter of understanding the risks, even those you can't control, and taking measures to manage or avoid them.
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I'm sorry, but I find this to be an utterly ridiculous statement. If that were true for motorcycles, then it would inherently be true for ALL accidents.
You can drive as defensively as humanly possible, but there is no way to account for all of the variables in a way to avoid all of the possible outcomes unless you just avoid driving completely.
Tell me, how could this rider have predicted and avoided this one and how is it his fault?




Yes this is an extreme example, but it proves the point that you just never know what can and will happen out on the roads and that there is no way that you can say that all motorcycle accidents are the fault of the rider.
 
Ya, the only way to avoid all accidents is to avoid getting on the infernal machines in the first place.

That said, there is a lot of truth in the statement and "all" should be replaced by "most" or "many". People make a lot of assumptions in life and when you are riding a motorcycle too many times you are making assumptions about the road conditions or expectations of the other driver - and when you are wrong there can be hell to pay.
 
I tend to agree that many, perhaps most bike accidents are the fault of the motorcycle rider. Usually it's riding outside of ones skill level, or riding like a jerk, or taking chances that one shouldn't take. But to say that ALL accidents are the fault of the biker makes absolutely no sense to me because, at the very least, it's impossible to prove.
 
"Fault" is a polarizing word. I've learned this through my 30+ years in the insurance profession. The notion that most, if not all, motorcycle accidents could be avoided by the motorcyclist is acceptable to me. Assigning fault to the motorcyclist for not avoiding an accident is not acceptable to me. So, what I think the CHP and others who I have heard discuss this issue meant was that 98% (allowing 2% for animals jumping out from the forest or giant rocks falling from the sky) could have been avoided by the motorcyclist, regardless of whether he was at fault or not. I tend to agree with that assessment, by the way. A
 
EmptySea_imp said:
"Fault" is a polarizing word. I've learned this through my 30+ years in the insurance profession. The notion that most, if not all, motorcycle accidents could be avoided by the motorcyclist is acceptable to me. Assigning fault to the motorcyclist for not avoiding an accident is not acceptable to me. So, what I think the CHP and others who I have heard discuss this issue meant was that 98% (allowing 2% for animals jumping out from the forest or giant rocks falling from the sky) could have been avoided by the motorcyclist, regardless of whether he was at fault or not. I tend to agree with that assessment, by the way. A
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You summarized it better than I. Thanks for clarifying.
 
I have made my views on this subject well known. See the post below. Better still read the Entire Thread. But there are a lot of opinions, some contrary, some not, in that thread. Personally, I have no reason to change my views expressed by the "shark" metaphor. Simply put, if you choose to swim with the Sharks, don't blame anyone else but yourself if you get bitten. The "sharks" in our case are normal human errors that are totally ineradicable. We are, after all, humans and are far from perfection.


Pterodactyl_imp said:
The Spaceman_imp said:
It's human to look for "the solution," Ptero, but I'm afraid in some cases there isn't one. Guys are going to ride over their heads, ride too fast for conditions, or, on rare occasions, ride beyond the capabilities of their bikes.

We can't "fix" riders, but we can promote ATGATT and rider training, continue developing safety systems like ABS and TC , and improve the riding environment with better roads, signage, etc.

You're a good man to have spent the time helping that guy out.
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Thanks, but I am certain that most members of this forum would do the same. The ferret would probably have produced a cup of tea as well :).

Back to the point of my post. Let me look at some of ferret's points. Signage: it's a double edged sword that plays well in the the blame game. In some remote parts of our state where the roads are very twisty, narrow and dangerous there is very little signage. These roads have a sign at either end. This sign indicates, by a black circle with a diagonal line (similar to a banned sign), that the previous speed limit is removed. Under the circle is a simple notice: Drive Carefully to Suit Conditions. These roads compare very favourably for accident stats with very well signed roads. Nothing like not knowing what awaits you to make you work hard on what you can ACTUALLY SEE. Novel idea huh? Unlike a turn with a, say, 85kph advisory; for a slow coach like me about 120 is good and for the boy racers I couldn't really say 'cause I'm eating their dust. Sadly, sometimes ambition exceeds ability.

Next, risk taking. What has surprised me is the absence of challenges to my assertion that if a motorist knocks us off in an act of callous stupidity that it is OUR FAULT. Let me explain. It's our fault, on a tactical level, for maybe not scanning, anticipating or buffering. But if we have done all those things and the worst occurs how can it be possibly our fault? And this is where the lame duck "excuses" get rolled out. "He didn't indicate" etc, etc, etc.

Does anyone in their right mind blame the shark for taking a surfer who chooses to surf in a "toothy" location? No, of course they wouldn't. You might say "What in hell has that got to do with it?" Well, good folks, now is the time to take another look in that metaphorical mirror. You have chosen to ride a vehicle with limited self righting capability. You have chosen to ride a vehicle with no protective structure, no seat belt, no air bags, no side impact protection. A vehicle with a low visual impact (apart from my clown suit that is :)). Look at the environment you choose to ride in. Humans will never ever stop making stupid decisions and errors of commission or omission. Humans will never be always able to apply themselves to the task in hand without their minds wandering to the mortgage, the family problems, the incoming SMS tone, the next fix or even the more pleasant aspects of our existence. We choose to ride in close proximity and often at high speed to humans in charge of, but often not in control of, lethal weapons. Like the surfer we choose to be vulnerable in a high risk environment. So if it all goes pear shaped we must accept responsibility for being there. Agreed?

Make roads perfect no risk structures, preferably straight. Ensure humans, both riders and drivers, make no errors (that's a hard one, but in the world of SF spookily doable). Limit speed to walking pace. Put trainer wheels on to prevent the low speed drop. Compulsory ABS, traction control, limit power, make bikes bland but very very safe. Remove all risk. Isn't that the ultimate goal?

How far do we want to go down that path? I suspect that not too many on this forum want all risk removed. My view is that if ALL risk is removed then I'd rather play lawn bowls, it's closer to the bar. Or the tea room.

Cheers
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Thanks, but I am certain that most members of this forum would do the same. The ferret would probably have produced a cup of tea as well :).

Back to the point of my post. Let me look at some of ferret's points. Signage: it's a double edged sword that plays well in the the blame game. In some remote parts of our state where the roads are very twisty, narrow and dangerous there is very little signage. These roads have a sign at either end. This sign indicates, by a black circle with a diagonal line (similar to a banned sign), that the previous speed limit is removed. Under the circle is a simple notice: Drive Carefully to Suit Conditions. These roads compare very favourably for accident stats with very well signed roads. Nothing like not knowing what awaits you to make you work hard on what you can ACTUALLY SEE. Novel idea huh? Unlike a turn with a, say, 85kph advisory; for a slow coach like me about 120 is good and for the boy racers I couldn't really say 'cause I'm eating their dust. Sadly, sometimes ambition exceeds ability.

Next, risk taking. What has surprised me is the absence of challenges to my assertion that if a motorist knocks us off in an act of callous stupidity that it is OUR FAULT. Let me explain. It's our fault, on a tactical level, for maybe not scanning, anticipating or buffering. But if we have done all those things and the worst occurs how can it be possibly our fault? And this is where the lame duck "excuses" get rolled out. "He didn't indicate" etc, etc, etc.

Does anyone in their right mind blame the shark for taking a surfer who chooses to surf in a "toothy" location? No, of course they wouldn't. You might say "What in hell has that got to do with it?" Well, good folks, now is the time to take another look in that metaphorical mirror. You have chosen to ride a vehicle with limited self righting capability. You have chosen to ride a vehicle with no protective structure, no seat belt, no air bags, no side impact protection. A vehicle with a low visual impact (apart from my clown suit that is :)). Look at the environment you choose to ride in. Humans will never ever stop making stupid decisions and errors of commission or omission. Humans will never be always able to apply themselves to the task in hand without their minds wandering to the mortgage, the family problems, the incoming SMS tone, the next fix or even the more pleasant aspects of our existence. We choose to ride in close proximity and often at high speed to humans in charge of, but often not in control of, lethal weapons. Like the surfer we choose to be vulnerable in a high risk environment. So if it all goes pear shaped we must accept responsibility for being there. Agreed?

Make roads perfect no risk structures, preferably straight. Ensure humans, both riders and drivers, make no errors (that's a hard one, but in the world of SF spookily doable). Limit speed to walking pace. Put trainer wheels on to prevent the low speed drop. Compulsory ABS, traction control, limit power, make bikes bland but very very safe. Remove all risk. Isn't that the ultimate goal?

How far do we want to go down that path? I suspect that not too many on this forum want all risk removed. My view is that if ALL risk is removed then I'd rather play lawn bowls, it's closer to the bar. Or the tea room.

Cheers
 
Several years ago I was teaching my girlfriend how to drive a car (don't get me started on what a mistake that was :@ ). As she would drive, I would point out what the other cars on the road were about to do, before they did it or signaled it. Years of riding defensively allowed me to pick up on the subtle clues that drivers give before they do something stupid (i.e. head movements, lane position, tire movement ). She was pretty impressed.

It's an automatic thing for me and something I know I didn't have back when I first started riding, which led to some scraped skin and metal. Nowadays I feel quite comfortable navigating crazy city traffic every day. Somebody tries to take me out at least once a week, but I always see them coming.

That being said, the notion that this situational awareness can prevent every accident is a bit much. A couple of years ago, some dufus ran into the back of me as I stopped for a stop sign. Short of levitation, I don't see how that could have been avoided. Although I feel quite comfortable on the street, I fully realize that something like a high speed red light runner, or someone crossing over from oncoming traffic could take me out in a heartbeat and there's very little that I could do to avoid it.
 
Flyn, you are so right. Optimise your chances by whatever means that are available and within your ability. But getting run down, or whatever, can happen with no means at your disposal to prevent that happening. Additionally, in all honestly, surely there is not one amongst us who can say they have never, ever, had a ride where a little bit of post ride self assessment came up with the conclusion, "Mmmmmm, I could have done that better" or "Mmmmmm, I should have seen that. I got lucky" or "Wow, that was a lapse in my attention. I won't do that again", or maybe just a knowing feeling that all was not as it should have been. Over the years I guess I've had a few. Hopefully I've learnt from those occasions. Darling says that at my age I shouldn't really be riding a motorbike, but I'm comfortable with the level of risk.

But back to my assertions that we are all too human. "Things" will happen. We chose to ride in an uncertain environment. If something goes wrong then we have to share the blame. Otherwise trade the bike in on a large truck.

Cheers
 
All this lead me to re-read the original post Pterodactyl referred to. It was a good rant, Ptero and worth revisiting.

I'd forgotten EmptySea's point:

EmptySea_imp said:
LOL @ "The Man"

I feel like he is saying "S#%t happens, just don't go blaming others for s#%t that you made happen." Then again, I could be wrong.
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It reminded me of a philosophical bumper sticker I saw once. "S#%t doesn't just happen! Some a#%ehole always creates it" it read.

So, don't give me all this it-must-be-my-fault BFM*; unless I do it deliberately, it must be someone else's fault. :P

BFM = bovine fæcal matter
 
Once again, good point. We do "do it deliberately". That is, ride a motorcycle in an environment over which we have far from total control.

Cheers
 
Pterodactyl_imp said:
Once again, good point. We do "do it deliberately". That is, ride a motorcycle in an environment over which we have far from total control.

Cheers
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I wouldn't know anything about that.

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I keep saying this but riding at the racetrack will teach you several things above learning how to ride better. It helps with the panic. If you don't panic, you're way ahead of the game. Keep your head and give yourself distance and you'll be fine.
 
Pauley_imp said:
Ouch


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yeah.....that was a rough day. The week in the hospital wasn't all that much fun either.
 
There's no way you can blame the motorcyclist in every instance. Just this past Saturday I'm in the right lane of a four lane interstate highway. I'm doing 65. Two vehicles are playing tag at 85MPH. This is unknown to me, as neither was in my lane behind me, so I can't be expected to see them behind me, they're swerving from the far left lane across 4 lanes. The first I notice them was when one of the vehicles swerved sideways into and out of my lane from my left, missing me by a couple of inches. Whoosh. There and gone, I didn't even have any time to react. I'm sure if he hit me, he'd keep right on going, chasing his prey.

The fact that half of motorcyclists involved in crashes don't have either a MC endorsement or insurance, people doing studies can put the blame on them because they shouldn't have been out riding at all.
 
"Blame" has the same polarizing qualities as "Fault".

Most of the preachers of the "Crashes are avoidable" gospel allow for a small percentage of unavoidable crash situations. Perhaps yours would have fallen into that percentage. Of course, you didn't crash and we don't have all the details to analyze the situation fully.

Those preachers are not blaming you, though. And until a rider gets past the "fault" and "blame" game, they may have a block on how to work toward an avoidance strategy.
 
EmptySea_imp said:
"Blame" has the same polarizing qualities as "Fault".

Most of the preachers of the "Crashes are avoidable" gospel allow for a small percentage of unavoidable crash situations. Perhaps yours would have fallen into that percentage. Of course, you didn't crash and we don't have all the details to analyze the situation fully.

Those preachers are not blaming you, though. And until a rider gets past the "fault" and "blame" game, they may have a block on how to work toward an avoidance strategy.
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:thumbsup: I know many motorcyclists as well as road cyclists who spend a lot of time discussing what they will do and how they will respond if anyone hits them or runs them off the road, etcetera. I know very few of these folks who actually take the responsibility upon themselves to do everything possible to avoid an accident, such as riding uber-defensively, being visible, realizing that others often don't see you or anticipate your actions, and last but not least, training, training, training.

The culture, for example, with road cyclists is to reject any lighting on the bike at all. More riders now than ever are using lights but there is still a stigma associated with them, like having a bell or basket. Pretty stupid, since the new LED lights are super-bright and hardly add any weight to the bicycle at all.

Speaking of crashes, I don't know a single motorcyclist who was involved in an accident who was not completely at fault, including my own three crashes. The rider was completely at fault, I'll say it again. No other vehicles around, no other riders involved. The list is too long, many of the riders are deceased. Single-bike accidents, guys and gals just overcooking it somehow. I am talking 34 years of riding here, not one incident where another vehicle or condition was to blame. So that CHP statement is very consistent with my personal experience.

Learn to use those brakes, they are much harder to master than opening the throttle.
LongRanger_imp said:
I attended a presentation from the CHP several years ago and their underlying message was that all motorcycle accidents are avoidable and are always the fault of the motorcyclist, even when another vehicle violates their right of way. I agree. It's a matter of understanding the risks, even those you can't control, and taking measures to manage or avoid them.
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+1, as I explained above. 34 years riding, over 500,000 miles, plus road racing and lots and lots of track days, this has been exactly my experience. I crashed thrice myself, and each time it was my own dork move.

Actually this assessment should be good news to us as riders, because it means we have much more control over what happens to us than we might have thought. That's how it's worked out for me, at any rate.
 
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