The Coronavirus Chronicles -Three Strikes You're Out

[Cormanus]

Quote:Stichill: That can't be proven, any more than it can be proven that removing restrictions would not result in an exponential increase.
It's being proved in real time. Governor Noem of South Dakota resisted putting a shelter in place order and now that state is becoming one of the fastest growing hot spots for the virus.

The evidence is there and can't be ignored. Back in 1918 there was a shelter in place order for the Spanish Flu. Philadelphia decided to have a war bond parade anyway and thousands died as a result. 4500 in one week.

The economy will come back, it always does. But once somebody dies they die forever. I'm not willing to risk it for myself or anyone I know. Some say it's not that big a deal, only 2% will die. Can you name 2 of a hundred of your family, friends and acquaintances you're willing to sacrifice?

BTW am I the only one that the Quote This Post feature isn't working for still?

KE, I already inquired about this issue, NO fix so far...maybe it's eating space???
It would be nice to get some explanation, so we would understand this issue.

KE, I already inquired about this issue, NO fix so far...maybe it's eating space???
It would be nice to get some explanation, so we would understand this issue.
This has been discussed in the past.

As far as I know it isn't working for anyone. I've also lost the ability to turn off the sidebar of recent posts permanently which drives me crazy. Both issues are likely to be related to the forum's software. The only person who can fix that is the administrator—Guth—and, as he works in the health care industry, he may not have a lot of time to work on it at the moment.

I think the software is in need of an upgrade, and that there is some risk associated with that. Guth needs time to work on it and, as things stand, only he can do that work.

In the grand scheme of things, it's not a huge issue. Simply replying to the post you want to quote still works.

Quote:Stichill: That can't be proven, any more than it can be proven that removing restrictions would not result in an exponential increase.
It's being proved in real time. Governor Noem of South Dakota resisted putting a shelter in place order and now that state is becoming one of the fastest growing hot spots for the virus.

The evidence is there and can't be ignored. Back in 1918 there was a shelter in place order for the Spanish Flu. Philadelphia decided to have a war bond parade anyway and thousands died as a result. 4500 in one week.

The economy will come back, it always does. But once somebody dies they die forever. I'm not willing to risk it for myself or anyone I know. Some say it's not that big a deal, only 2% will die. Can you name 2 of a hundred of your family, friends and acquaintances you're willing to sacrifice?

BTW am I the only one that the Quote This Post feature isn't working for still?

That's one meat processing plant where workers stand shoulder-to-shoulder. The state at large is hardly affected.

Quote:Stichill: That can't be proven, any more than it can be proven that removing restrictions would not result in an exponential increase.
It's being proved in real time. Governor Noem of South Dakota resisted putting a shelter in place order and now that state is becoming one of the fastest growing hot spots for the virus.

The evidence is there and can't be ignored. Back in 1918 there was a shelter in place order for the Spanish Flu. Philadelphia decided to have a war bond parade anyway and thousands died as a result. 4500 in one week.

The economy will come back, it always does. But once somebody dies they die forever. I'm not willing to risk it for myself or anyone I know. Some say it's not that big a deal, only 2% will die. Can you name 2 of a hundred of your family, friends and acquaintances you're willing to sacrifice?

BTW am I the only one that the Quote This Post feature isn't working for still?

On the other hand, it's possible that Californians already widely communicated the virus prior to the lockdown and managed to develop [url=https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-california-herd-immunity/]herd immunity that has kept the hospitalization rate in check. Maybe California already passed the peak without even realizing it, while the rest of the country is locking down and unwittingly prolonging the social disruption and economic devastation.

Quote:Stichill: That can't be proven, any more than it can be proven that removing restrictions would not result in an exponential increase.
It's being proved in real time. Governor Noem of South Dakota resisted putting a shelter in place order and now that state is becoming one of the fastest growing hot spots for the virus.

The evidence is there and can't be ignored. Back in 1918 there was a shelter in place order for the Spanish Flu. Philadelphia decided to have a war bond parade anyway and thousands died as a result. 4500 in one week.

The economy will come back, it always does. But once somebody dies they die forever. I'm not willing to risk it for myself or anyone I know. Some say it's not that big a deal, only 2% will die. Can you name 2 of a hundred of your family, friends and acquaintances you're willing to sacrifice?

BTW am I the only one that the Quote This Post feature isn't working for still?

What if more people would die while suffering through a depression than would die from the virus impacting the minority population with existing co-morbidities, the most salient of which is extreme obesity? An interesting factoid I heard is that more people over the age of 100 have died from C-19 than have under age 30. Let that sink in a minute. This virus is not an equal-opportunity killer. Some specific populations are vulnerable and others are not, but we have a one-size-fits-all public policy vs. something rational and evidence-based.

I'm sorry I reacted so strongly to your post, Stichill. You were correct that we won't know the true extent of the outbreak without thorough testing. Sadly, I doubt we will ever get a truly accurate picture of the extent of this thing without testing a significant percentage of the population. And as Ferret touched on, its hard to test for something that may not have symptoms for weeks or even at all, even when you may be a carrier. As you said, we just have to count the dead. But then, of course, it's too late to use as a basis for any meaningful response.

You stated, "It's starting to look like the world may have destroyed the global economy ill-advisedly." That is certainly possible, but that's kinda Monday-morning quarterbacking. We and the experts must depend on with what we know at the time, and we don't know much. I'd rather look back and say we overshot the mark than look back and see we let thousands/millions die through neglect.

Meanwhile, I'm one of those entrepreneurs you mentioned that is impacted so strongly. My phone just rang yesterday for the first time in almost a month. Never mind what has happened to our retirement funds. It's a tough time and it's going to get worse for everyone. We have to have faith, however, that the economy will recover, however slowly. Yes, we will all suffer, some terribly. But there is no recovering from death, so I see preventing the spread of this virus as our first priority. We may all get it in the end, but slowing its spread is important.

As to governmental overreach, I'm totally with you. I don't believe the authorities should be doing any more than supporting commonsense restrictions on movement and exposure. We should not let this crisis be a reason to cede freedoms to a power grabbing administration, be it local, state of federal. I fear authoritarian actions much more than I do a damaged economy. I am very concerned about how this crisis may be used as an excuse to manipulate the election in November, whether through executive order or voter suppression. If there is an election in November. I am going on record here with my prediction that there won't be.

Of course, I could be wrong. Probably am. Anyhow, thanks for listening. Civil discourse is important, especially now.

I appreciate your perspectives, Bob. Very balanced and well-stated perspectives...thank you!

The one example of aiming for herd immunity that I'm aware of is the UK. It started with this approach, realised it was not delivering and switched to a strong policy of social isolation. Its death rate continues to be higher than the US and some reports yesterday suggested it may well end up being the most badly affected country in Europe.

It's a problem that we're speculating on the basis of relatively little knowledge. The testing rates are low the world over—in the US just under 1% of the population has been tested. Even in the Faroe Islands, which is top of the pops for testing the rate is only 11%. We don't yet know for sure that having the virus provides immunity—although experts think it's highly likely. It's likely there's a whole load of deaths from this virus that remain unreported. That means there are likely to be loads more cases that are unreported. So the so-called 'hard' data does not provide a complete picture.

I agree with Inhouse Bob, we have to make (and hope our leaders are making) the best decisions we and they can on the information we have and the advice we're getting from experts. Even the best of them will make mistakes in circumstances that are changing as rapidly as these, so we need to cut them some slack.

As to government over-reach, I think a little latitude needs to be given in the circumstances. However, living as I do, in a country where government is almost daily becoming more powerful and less accountable, I remain afraid that any extra authority they give themselves through this period will not be wound back when the worst of this is over. It's hard to think of a political system where the ruling class has willingly given up power without being placed under significant duress.