The Coronavirus Chronicles -Three Strikes You're Out

[KiowaEagle_imp]

Good luck getting tested Ferret. In this area only if you are symptomatic and are in the health/emergency services. Even then it’s hard to get tested.

[the Ferret]

Not here in Ohio but in Kentucky they have started doing drive thru testing at Krogers for Tier 1 risk group.. Emergency personnel, first responders, seniors over 65. If it comes to Ohio I won't get tested unless I get symptoms.

Constant/personal self monitoring system would be perfect...think, there is some progress in this field?

I take my temp morning and evening just for grins. I also weigh myself and take my blood pressure every morning because of some meds I'm on...hey I've only gained between 1 and 3 pounds (it goes up and down) during this ordeal so far lol which includes a lot of sitting around watching old westerns and snacking.

[Stichill_imp]

The thing that confuses me about testing if you are not showing any symptoms is.. so you are not showing any symptoms, but you are over 65 (among the group they recommend testing). You go in and get tested and the test results come back negative. Great. A week or two later you go to the grocery, or hardware store and come in contact with someone who has the virus (the clerk?).... and become infected then. So how often do you need to get tested? I can't see this being a one and done deal. People that were among the first tested weeks ago could certainly be infected today. Right?

I've been thinking the same thing, ferret! I know a bunch of people who are out of sorts and complaining about the lack of testing and blaming this or that company or politician etc. The testing is just a snapshot in time. You're healthy today but infected tomorrow, so what have we learned unless we test everyone every day? Measuring the size of the problem doesn't have any impact on the problem itself.

I think the key number to watch is hospitalizations. In New York, I heard they are taking apart the emergency hospital set up in the Javits Center due to lack of patients. The US Navy hospital ship Comfort, with 1000 beds, is largely going unused. That's good news, but is further indication that the experts may have blown this thing out of all proportion. It's starting to look like the world may have destroyed the global economy ill-advisedly.

[Rocky_imp]

I'm sitting around too much too so I've cut back on the portions of my meals so I don't gain any weight. That also helps to stretch the food items too and I don't have to grocery shop more than about every three weeks.
I've also cut back on using more paper towel than I need as well as things like tinfoil when cooking. Plenty of ways to stretch items that were formerly used to excess (wasted) and taken for granted.
I think there are lessons in there for the far future.

[Inhouse Bob]

The thing that confuses me about testing if you are not showing any symptoms is.. so you are not showing any symptoms, but you are over 65 (among the group they recommend testing). You go in and get tested and the test results come back negative. Great. A week or two later you go to the grocery, or hardware store and come in contact with someone who has the virus (the clerk?).... and become infected then. So how often do you need to get tested? I can't see this being a one and done deal. People that were among the first tested weeks ago could certainly be infected today. Right?

I've been thinking the same thing, ferret! I know a bunch of people who are out of sorts and complaining about the lack of testing and blaming this or that company or politician etc. The testing is just a snapshot in time. You're healthy today but infected tomorrow, so what have we learned unless we test everyone every day? Measuring the size of the problem doesn't have any impact on the problem itself.

I think the key number to watch is hospitalizations. In New York, I heard they are taking apart the emergency hospital set up in the Javits Center due to lack of patients. The US Navy hospital ship Comfort, with 1000 beds, is largely going unused. That's good news, but is further indication that the experts may have blown this thing out of all proportion. It's starting to look like the world may have destroyed the global economy ill-advisedly.

I hope instead that this is an indicator of how well social distancing has worked and that if we keep up the good effort we will save many lives. It's a bit like a hurricane coming toward Texas... they make a big deal out of the potential devastation to come so folks take it seriously and either prep well or get out of town in time to save themselves. Do we then say that it wasn't so serious because hardly anyone died? Do we blame the messenger for an advance warning? Even if that storm turns out to sea and does no damage, the warning must go out based on what information the messenger has at the time.
The bottom line with this virus is that no one knew/knows how serious it will be because it's new. So as a public health official, do you prepare for the worst or just downplay it until the @~*^e hits the fan? Is the economy a consideration in that calculation? Perhaps. But rather than see the empty emergency hospitals as a sign of failed policy or over reaction, I see them as a marker of the success of efforts to control/limit the virus' spread. Prepare for the worst and work for the best.

[KiowaEagle_imp]

Quote:Stichill Wrote:
It's starting to look like the world may have destroyed the global economy ill-advisedly.
Tell that to the 27,000 Americans who have already died. 129,000 Worldwide.

Without the measures put in place that number would be way higher. Sometimes thoughtful prevention can be painful but it doesn't make it any less necessary.

[Stichill_imp]

The thing that confuses me about testing if you are not showing any symptoms is.. so you are not showing any symptoms, but you are over 65 (among the group they recommend testing). You go in and get tested and the test results come back negative. Great. A week or two later you go to the grocery, or hardware store and come in contact with someone who has the virus (the clerk?).... and become infected then. So how often do you need to get tested? I can't see this being a one and done deal. People that were among the first tested weeks ago could certainly be infected today. Right?

I've been thinking the same thing, ferret! I know a bunch of people who are out of sorts and complaining about the lack of testing and blaming this or that company or politician etc. The testing is just a snapshot in time. You're healthy today but infected tomorrow, so what have we learned unless we test everyone every day? Measuring the size of the problem doesn't have any impact on the problem itself.

I think the key number to watch is hospitalizations. In New York, I heard they are taking apart the emergency hospital set up in the Javits Center due to lack of patients. The US Navy hospital ship Comfort, with 1000 beds, is largely going unused. That's good news, but is further indication that the experts may have blown this thing out of all proportion. It's starting to look like the world may have destroyed the global economy ill-advisedly.

I hope instead that this is an indicator of how well social distancing has worked and that if we keep up the good effort we will save many lives. It's a bit like a hurricane coming toward Texas... they make a big deal out of the potential devastation to come so folks take it seriously and either prep well or get out of town in time to save themselves. Do we then say that it wasn't so serious because hardly anyone died? Do we blame the messenger for an advance warning? Even if that storm turns out to sea and does no damage, the warning must go out based on what information the messenger has at the time.
The bottom line with this virus is that no one knew/knows how serious it will be because it's new. So as a public health official, do you prepare for the worst or just downplay it until the @~*^e hits the fan? Is the economy a consideration in that calculation? Perhaps. But rather than see the empty emergency hospitals as a sign of failed policy or over reaction, I see them as a marker of the success of efforts to control/limit the virus' spread. Prepare for the worst and work for the best.

It has to be. "The economy" is not an abstraction...it's millions of people's lives, livelihoods, and life's work being destroyed. There are so many small and medium businesses that will never again open their doors, and the entrepreneurs are ruined.

There has to be a balance between risk and a life worth living. As motorcyclists, I think we all innately understand that calculus.

The other troublesome outcome is the vast growth of state autocracy and intrusion on personal liberty. What's going on in Michigan under the banner of "flattening the curve" shocks the conscience of a free people.

Quote:Stichill Wrote:
It's starting to look like the world may have destroyed the global economy ill-advisedly.
Tell that to the 27,000 Americans who have already died. 129,000 Worldwide.

Without the measures put in place that number would be way higher. Sometimes thoughtful prevention can be painful but it doesn't make it any less necessary.

I'm not sure that's a practical recommendation.

Quote:Stichill Wrote:
It's starting to look like the world may have destroyed the global economy ill-advisedly.
Tell that to the 27,000 Americans who have already died. 129,000 Worldwide.

Without the measures put in place that number would be way higher. Sometimes thoughtful prevention can be painful but it doesn't make it any less necessary.

That can't be proven, any more than it can be proven that removing restrictions would not result in an exponential increase.

[KiowaEagle_imp]

Quote:Stichill: That can't be proven, any more than it can be proven that removing restrictions would not result in an exponential increase.
It's being proved in real time. Governor Noem of South Dakota resisted putting a shelter in place order and now that state is becoming one of the fastest growing hot spots for the virus.

The evidence is there and can't be ignored. Back in 1918 there was a shelter in place order for the Spanish Flu. Philadelphia decided to have a war bond parade anyway and thousands died as a result. 4500 in one week.

The economy will come back, it always does. But once somebody dies they die forever. I'm not willing to risk it for myself or anyone I know. Some say it's not that big a deal, only 2% will die. Can you name 2 of a hundred of your family, friends and acquaintances you're willing to sacrifice?

BTW am I the only one that the Quote This Post feature isn't working for still?

[peterbaron]

Quote:Stichill: That can't be proven, any more than it can be proven that removing restrictions would not result in an exponential increase.
It's being proved in real time. Governor Noem of South Dakota resisted putting a shelter in place order and now that state is becoming one of the fastest growing hot spots for the virus.

The evidence is there and can't be ignored. Back in 1918 there was a shelter in place order for the Spanish Flu. Philadelphia decided to have a war bond parade anyway and thousands died as a result. 4500 in one week.

The economy will come back, it always does. But once somebody dies they die forever. I'm not willing to risk it for myself or anyone I know. Some say it's not that big a deal, only 2% will die. Can you name 2 of a hundred of your family, friends and acquaintances you're willing to sacrifice?

BTW am I the only one that the Quote This Post feature isn't working for still?

KE, I already inquired about this issue, NO fix so far...maybe it's eating space???
It would be nice to get some explanation, so we would understand this issue.

[Inhouse Bob]

I'm sorry I reacted so strongly to your post, Stichill. You were correct that we won't know the true extent of the outbreak without thorough testing. Sadly, I doubt we will ever get a truly accurate picture of the extent of this thing without testing a significant percentage of the population. And as Ferret touched on, its hard to test for something that may not have symptoms for weeks or even at all, even when you may be a carrier. As you said, we just have to count the dead. But then, of course, it's too late to use as a basis for any meaningful response.

You stated, "It's starting to look like the world may have destroyed the global economy ill-advisedly." That is certainly possible, but that's kinda Monday-morning quarterbacking. We and the experts must depend on with what we know at the time, and we don't know much. I'd rather look back and say we overshot the mark than look back and see we let thousands/millions die through neglect.

Meanwhile, I'm one of those entrepreneurs you mentioned that is impacted so strongly. My phone just rang yesterday for the first time in almost a month. Never mind what has happened to our retirement funds. It's a tough time and it's going to get worse for everyone. We have to have faith, however, that the economy will recover, however slowly. Yes, we will all suffer, some terribly. But there is no recovering from death, so I see preventing the spread of this virus as our first priority. We may all get it in the end, but slowing its spread is important.

As to governmental overreach, I'm totally with you. I don't believe the authorities should be doing any more than supporting commonsense restrictions on movement and exposure. We should not let this crisis be a reason to cede freedoms to a power grabbing administration, be it local, state of federal. I fear authoritarian actions much more than I do a damaged economy. I am very concerned about how this crisis may be used as an excuse to manipulate the election in November, whether through executive order or voter suppression. If there is an election in November. I am going on record here with my prediction that there won't be.

Of course, I could be wrong. Probably am. Anyhow, thanks for listening. Civil discourse is important, especially now.