Valencia! ***spoiler alert ****

[Pterodactyl_imp]

I don't agree with the conspiracy theorists. If Rossi had both kept his mouth shut and not pushed MM off the track he may have been world champion today. He certainly would be better remembered.

Justice was done.

Cheers

[CB4ME_imp]

Another excellent summary of the race and the season by MotoMatters:

https://motomatters.com/analysis/2015/11...p_how.html

As I suspected, Rossi never had the pace of the Hondas or Lorenzo. And sadly, Rossi continued to place blame on Marquez in the post race news conference.

[Henrik_imp]

As somebody who has been following bike racing very closely now for some 40 years, and being particularly passionate about the sport, I find it impossible not to provide some more in depth analysis and comments on what has gone down this season in MotoGP. I should add that I often discuss racing events with a number of friends who are former or current racers, as well as others involved in the sport both as regulators and team managers/members, and so I do get a fair amount of “inside” feedback that can be quite pertinent at times.

This season, as some have mentioned, started out as being one of the best in history. The level of talent in this year’s line-up was simply amazing including probably the two fastest riders ever with Lorenzo and Marquez, as well as the one referred to by many as the greatest of all time. Granted, Rossi is much closer to the end of his career than the beginning, and even if he may not possess the outright speed of the other two, he certainly can equal them on a regular basis. With his immense experience and race-craft, he has what it takes to make the difference whenever the situation becomes a bit tricky, and so approaching the last part of the season he was leading in the points. Realizing that his quest for a 10th title was becoming a possible reality, I have no doubt that he began to really feel the pressure. Getting on in the years, beyond what many riders consider retirement age, it was clear to him that this was probably the last proper chance he would have for this.

Going in to Phillip Island, Rossi was really feeling the pressure. The gap to Lorenzo was not big enough to relax in any way, and so a good result here was crucial. Now Phillip Island is a track that, like most proper riders, he really loves. It is a rider’s track, with many fast sweeping corners. Along with Assen it is one of the last old-school tracks on the agenda. He knew that it was here, and possibly Sepang, that he needed to ensure his title as Valencia has never been his track. Lorenzo obviously knew all this, and he had but one goal which was to do what he does best; get out in front and keep that lead until the end. Well, at the end of that race I found myself exhausted, and I qualified it as probably the best race I have ever seen. It was intense, with the top four guys going at it in a way rarely seen, and I absolutely loved it. In a way, it was for me the crowning of the 2015 season as being the best season ever.

Then the following week at the Thursday press conference things turned weird. Rossi came out accusing Marquez of having hindered him in Australia, favouring Lorenzo. According to Rossi, Marquez did not want him to win another title as it would make all the more difficult to beat this achievement, and he preferred it would be a Spaniard who would win the title. My first reaction at the time was that this was a joke. Rossi is known for being a master at mind games, and it seemed almost like a trick he had worked on together with Marquez to destabilize Lorenzo. I had always thought there was a proper respect between Rossi and Marquez, even if things had soured a bit earlier in the year in Argentina and particularly Assen. As this whole thing then evolved it became apparent that I had been completely wrong.

We know now that Rossi was deadly serious about his accusations against Marquez, and there was certainly no more camaraderie between the two of them. In speaking with some of my friends in the paddock, it became clear that Marquez had been more than a bit upset with Rossi earlier in the year, especially at Assen. He was furious that Rossi had beat him to the victory there, and had tried to invalidate it. For most observers at the time, it was more of an overly optimistic passing attempt up the inside of Rossi that backfired. There have been similar passes completed successfully by Rossi in the past, as well as by Marquez on Lorenzo, but this time Rossi sort of out-foxed the fox. A feeling had been building in Marquez that ultimately it was Rossi’s fault that he was no longer in contention for the title. So, the tension between the two had been building for some time even if it had not been obvious to an outsider.

I mentioned before that I thought the Phillip Island race to be probably the best race I have ever seen, and I would not have said that if I thought there was some foul play going on. I have re-watched the race since Rossi’s accusations to see if there was something there, and although there were some close moments, it all looked like pure racing incidents. However, there is a huge difference between watching a race and actually being part of it. Racing that closely to one another, at such speeds, there must be a huge amount of trust between the riders. This was probably best expressed by Haga, as he would always race extremely close to his opponents, having a complete trust in that they would not do something stupid. It is therefore very possible that Marquez did indeed interfere with Rossi, and that we just didn’t see it. If this is the case, then he probably just wanted to annoy him rather than really favour Lorenzo, especially given that he then went on to win the race and take 5 points from Jorge. If we have a look at a chart showing the lap times of the three, it does seem as if Marquez did indeed mess with Rossi:



The chart potentially shows two main things. First of all, around mid-way and at the end, Marquez showed an incredible pace producing by far the two fastest laps. The fact that he could do this mid way, and at the end would show that he could have gone faster overall, conclusively being ahead Lorenzo for much longer. The second thing is that there are regular sharp drops in the lap times where Rossi and Marquez are together, which very well could indicate hindering. Oh, and finally, the chart shows that Lorenzo is a freak managing to almost all his laps in the high 1.29’s!

I could then go on and show some statistics on Sepang, but I believe that the race there was visually quite obvious. In spite of who was at fault for the fall, I doubt anybody can dispute the fact that Marquez was messing with Rossi up until that corner on lap 7.

Moving on now to the race yesterday. In one of my earlier posts I mentioned that Rossi never had the pace to be on the podium, and I think other have come to the same conclusion. I will not post his lap times, but even if he had to contend with traffic in the early laps, he never got below 1.32 whereas the top three completed most laps in the 1.31’s. So, I am here just focusing on the top three comparing their laptimes throughout the race.



It certainly seems to me as if this chart does show a very different behavior from Marquez to that we are used to. The comparison with Pedrosa is also very telling in that it shows a general improvement in laptimes near the end, whereas Marquez continues to match Lorenzo completely. As of lap 20 Lorenzo’s, and subsequently Marc’s, laptimes begin to go off a bit all the while Pedrosa begins to faster. It is not that farfetched to imagine that Marc would also have been able to up the pace at that point making an attack on Lorenzo. Instead he slows, to the point where Pedrosa passes him, and he then sets about right away passing Pedrosa back. This gives some breathing room to Lorenzo, and in spite of faster lap times Pedrosa is not able to launch another attack on Marquez.

I know that nothing is definite, and we simply can’t base a judgement of a race result purely on lap statistics, but with all that we know and the obvious stats, it does at least seem plausible that Marquez did not ride like his usual self, and chose not to attack Lorenzo for the win. So, yes, I can fully understand that Rossi is bitter about the outcome, a feeling that certainly is shared by a number of people within the sport. However there will always be people on both sides. It’s like they say, opinions, we all have them… (well, you know the real saying!).

[CB4ME_imp]

Great analysis Henrik. Let me ask this. Would Rossi's 4th place finishes be any different if Marquez race any differently? Perhaps Marquez could have beaten Lorenzo at Valencia, but Jorge would still be champion.

On another related subject, here is the provisional line up for 2016:

N° RIDER NATIONALITY TEAM MACHINE
4 ANDREA DOVIZIOSO ITALIAN DUCATI RACING TEAM DUCATI
6 STEFAN BRADL GERMAN APRILIA RACING TEAM GRESINI APRILIA
8 HECTOR BARBERA SPANISH AVINTIA RACING DUCATI
9 DANILO PETRUCCI ITALIAN OCTO PRAMAC RACING DUCATI
15 ALEX DE ANGELIS SAN MARINO IODARACING PROJECT APRILIA
19 ALVARO BAUTISTA SPANISH APRILIA RACING TEAM GRESINI APRILIA
25 MAVERICK VINALES SPANISH TEAM SUZUKI ECSTAR SUZUKI
26 DANI PEDROSA SPANISH REPSOL HONDA TEAM HONDA
29 ANDREA IANNONE ITALIAN DUCATI RACING TEAM DUCATI
35 CAL CRUTCHLOW BRITISH LCR HONDA HONDA
38 BRADLEY SMITH BRITISH MONSTER YAMAHA TECH 3 YAMAHA
41 ALEIX ESPARGARO SPANISH TEAM SUZUKI ECSTAR SUZUKI
43 JACK MILLER AUSTRALIAN MARC VDS RACING TEAM HONDA
44 POL ESPARGARO SPANISH MONSTER YAMAHA TECH 3 YAMAHA
45 SCOTT REDDING BRITISH OCTO PRAMAC RACING DUCATI
46 VALENTINO ROSSI ITALIAN MOVISTAR YAMAHA MotoGP YAMAHA
50 EUGENE LAVERTY IRISH ASPAR MotoGP TEAM DUCATI
53 TITO RABAT SPANISH ESTRELLA GALICIA 0,0 MARC VDS HONDA
68 YONNY HERNANDEZ COLOMBIAN ASPAR MotoGP TEAM DUCATI
76 LORIS BAZ FRENCH AVINTIA RACING DUCATI
93 MARC MARQUEZ SPANISH REPSOL HONDA TEAM HONDA
99 JORGE LORENZO SPANISH MOVISTAR YAMAHA MotoGP YAMAHA
TOTAL
22 ENTRIES

* spaces were removed when I saved the post

[the Ferret]

Henrik I can really appreciate all the lap times and speculation and everything, I really can. Was there something going on between Marquez and Rossi, no doubt. Was Lorenzo and Pedrosa in on a conspiracy to beat Rossi I have serious reservations. Could Marquez have made a last lap pass on Lorenzo at Valencia? Maybe not, maybe so. If he had, would Rossi be world champion? No he would have also needed Pedrosa to pass him. So if Pedrosa didnt get it done, the blame would all be on Pedrosa. i like Pedrosa. i have since 2006. i'd rather all the blame be on Marquez, although I don't think Rossi should have relied on two competitors, one that he just called out and embarrased to help him become WC.

Final paragraph from me, I started watching GP in the late 60s and became a full time dedicated fan watching GP since 1973 the year Sarinnen got killed. Ive seen Agostini, Read, Criville, Roberts, Lawson,Rainey,Swantz, Doohan, Spencer, Sheen,Luchinelli, Uncini, Gardner, Hayden, Rossi, Marquez, Lorenzo and Stoner fight to become world champion. i've seen clean fights, Ive seen dirty fights, I've seen countymen helping countrymen, I've seen team mates helping team mates, I've seen egos out of control, I've seen collusion, blocking, checking, you name it. MotoGP is like any other full of spoiled ego maniacs who are flawed human beings that do things because they want to or don't want to effecting event we wish might turn out differently. You can't expect them to go about business like there is nothing at stake and no egos involved. If Marquez " chose" to not pass Lorenzo that was his right as an individual to do so.

As of now they are doing testing for 2016. For me 2015 is over, in the books. Done. No sense talking about it anymore. Lorenzo is champion. I have seen the battle fought for 42 years. Hope I see another 10 or 20 before I get called home. Don't think there is any racing situation I haven't seen. Just anothe year for me. Next year there will be another battle for the WC. And I think it just might be the best yet. With Ducati and Suzuki making inroads and their young stars beginning to shine.

[rboe]

If Rossi p'od off Marc earlier, and by that time he had crashed out of the championship, then the stunt two weeks ago; I can see where Marc would like to prevent Rossi from another championship - not so much to give Lorenzo one, but to prevent Rossi from gaining one.

And Rossi more or less played into his hands. From what little I have followed and seen, to me Rossi committed some classic mental errors from the stress of getting a tenth championship and lost it.

Marc is going to have to mature personally and has some ground to make up with the fans - if it's not too late. He has the potential to be one of the greats, provided he can grow up some.

Pedrosa has paid a very high price for the race, in the long run, with all the surgeries on his arm. I hope it's worth it for him.

I don't think we have seen the last of Lorenzo. Between Marc, Pedrosa and Lorenzo; I bet they wish that caliber of talent had occurred in another generation! Then again, would they be as great if they raced against lesser riders? I think they help each other raise the bar.

[Pterodactyl_imp]

A lot of good sense in all that Henrik and Ferret have posted. However, "probably", "seems" and "maybe" are key words in this little drama. Without knowing what any of the protagonists really intended we can only draw suppositions, not clear and unambiguous conclusions. I say again, I'm happy with the result. As for the season itself, fantastic. The only better climax would have been seeing at PI and onwards a third, or even fourth, rider, perhaps Danny or MM, in the mix for the championship.

Cheers, and bring on the '16 season.

[Henrik_imp]

Thanks for the feedback. I really just wanted to provide another opinion to the one of David Emmett looking back at what has happened. Even if the books are closed, one can still always continue to discuss them. I mean real passionate fans tend to love to discuss past events, sometimes to the point of flogging the proverbial dead horse! As a former F1 fan, I have friends that are still debating what went down between Senna and Prost, Villeneuve and Pironi etc.

Ferret, I would love to sometime sit down and discuss past racing with you over a cup of tea. Although perhaps a bit younger than you, I did start closely following all forms of bike racing in the early 70's and the passion has never left me. I have had the opportunity to befriend a number of legends over the years, and there is nothing I like more than talking with them about some of their races that I have witnessed, and getting some of the intimate details around it all. Sharing these stories then with other equally passionate friends is almost as much fun.

[the Ferret]

That would be fun Henrik. Tea is on me.

I'm also pretty fluent in Motocross from 73 until 1989, when it moved in doors away from European style Motocross to American style Supercross. After that I lost interest

I've met some of the stars of Motocross.. Yamaha Team riders Pierre Karsmakers, Tim Hart, Mike Hartwig and actually was a course Marshal for a Trans AMA National Race in 1974

and American Flattrack from about 1966 to 1975

[Henrik_imp]

Yeah, motocross was fun in the 70's. A couple of years ago I got to meet my hero from back then, Roger de Coster. One of my best friends works at the FIM, and he has been a close friend of Roger's since back then, and he had me over for dinner when Roger was visiting. For me it was all a bit unreal at first, but it only takes a couple of minutes for people passionate about bikes to get along like they have known each other for years.

After De Coster my favourite obviously became Hakan Carlqvist! And how can you not been in awe of those motocross racers on the 2 stroke 500s!!!

Although I did follow roadracing a bit before, it was really the arrival of King Kenny in the 500cc that got me interested, and I have only missed few races since then.

American flattrack is something I have always been curious about but never seen. Here in Europe it has always been speedway, and back in my home country obviously ice racing as well. Those are some intense and insane races there!!