07-02-2019, 09:10 AM
Chip, good points made, and I do agree with many of them. HD retains the lion's share of large displacement bikes, by far. They have their place in the world and their loyal followers. But not everyone wants or can afford a Harley.
Yes, the market is shrinking, with fewer new riders, and H-D (along with BMW and Ducati) did nothing to encourage young or new riders. The Japanese have been there with small bikes from the beginning, cultivating the long term future of all motorcycling.
Who among us can say we didn't start on a Z50, or a step-through 50, or XR75? Honda made the market for most of those Harley riders. (Interestingly, HD just bought a company that makes electric balance bikes for kids - too little too late.)
On the other end, the market is maturing, and older riders are selling their Harleys. There is such a glut of used Harleys that dealers won't take them on trade, which usually prevents a new bike sale.
HD sales have declined for the last 5 years, down 8.7% last year, double digits so far this year. In the last 4 years, net revenue is down 25%, long-term debt up 30%+, stock price down half.
The point I was trying to make is that H-D has relied so much and so long on permutations of a single engine platform. It has certainly evolved and improved, but that business model, so successful and so profitable for so long, may be nearing an end, or at least a critical period.
Engineering? Yes, I'm sure they have invested a lot in refining the same engine platform, but new? Pushrods with 2-valve heads, separate transmissions, a primary drive/clutch that makes it wider than a four? Yes, finally, water cooling, at least partial. Most advanced V-twin? Not by a long shot. Just say Ducati or Aprilia or Indian Scout.
I also agree that Ford's F-150s (and Chevy/GM and Ram) trucks are equally invincible in their market, and the envy of the industry profit wise. But the Japanese are not withdrawing from that market because they are un-competitive now.
And the sedan market may have cratered for the US makers, but not for Honda and Toyota. I pulled up some numbers, and they are at worst slowing, with much of those sales are lost to their own SUVs.
(Sales are for the last ten years in 5 year periods).
2009-2013 2014-2018 increase
Honda Accord 1,535,612 1,702,882 162,270
Honda Civic 1,395,264 1,405,357 10,093
Toyota Camry 1,806,507 1,977,097 170,590
Toyota Corolla 1,445,166 1,591,742 146,576
US automakers are largely abandoning segments of the market that have most appeal to young buyers. And where the Japanese and Korean makers see a niche, they plug a new model in, expanding the line, not leaving it to pursue short-term profits.
Yes, the market is shrinking, with fewer new riders, and H-D (along with BMW and Ducati) did nothing to encourage young or new riders. The Japanese have been there with small bikes from the beginning, cultivating the long term future of all motorcycling.
Who among us can say we didn't start on a Z50, or a step-through 50, or XR75? Honda made the market for most of those Harley riders. (Interestingly, HD just bought a company that makes electric balance bikes for kids - too little too late.)
On the other end, the market is maturing, and older riders are selling their Harleys. There is such a glut of used Harleys that dealers won't take them on trade, which usually prevents a new bike sale.
HD sales have declined for the last 5 years, down 8.7% last year, double digits so far this year. In the last 4 years, net revenue is down 25%, long-term debt up 30%+, stock price down half.
The point I was trying to make is that H-D has relied so much and so long on permutations of a single engine platform. It has certainly evolved and improved, but that business model, so successful and so profitable for so long, may be nearing an end, or at least a critical period.
Engineering? Yes, I'm sure they have invested a lot in refining the same engine platform, but new? Pushrods with 2-valve heads, separate transmissions, a primary drive/clutch that makes it wider than a four? Yes, finally, water cooling, at least partial. Most advanced V-twin? Not by a long shot. Just say Ducati or Aprilia or Indian Scout.
I also agree that Ford's F-150s (and Chevy/GM and Ram) trucks are equally invincible in their market, and the envy of the industry profit wise. But the Japanese are not withdrawing from that market because they are un-competitive now.
And the sedan market may have cratered for the US makers, but not for Honda and Toyota. I pulled up some numbers, and they are at worst slowing, with much of those sales are lost to their own SUVs.
(Sales are for the last ten years in 5 year periods).
2009-2013 2014-2018 increase
Honda Accord 1,535,612 1,702,882 162,270
Honda Civic 1,395,264 1,405,357 10,093
Toyota Camry 1,806,507 1,977,097 170,590
Toyota Corolla 1,445,166 1,591,742 146,576
US automakers are largely abandoning segments of the market that have most appeal to young buyers. And where the Japanese and Korean makers see a niche, they plug a new model in, expanding the line, not leaving it to pursue short-term profits.