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+--- Thread: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** (/showthread.php?tid=12975)
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - Bheezy27403_imp - 11-12-2018
(11-12-2018, 02:10 AM)RockHop_imp Wrote:(11-11-2018, 02:27 PM)GoldOxide_imp Wrote: Not sure if this topic has been discussed, however, I will risk bringing it up:
** The Death Knell of Motorcycling As We Know It. **
This might smell a bit of a conspiracy, but let's consider a few things:
* Technology is moving ever faster. Remember CDs, DVDs and even Bluerays? They're dead and dying;
* Autonomous vehicles based on machine learning, sensor advancement, and world-space database technologies;
* Electric-drive and slight variations of the theme;
* The erratic and political cost of dino;
* The environmental impact of drilling, fracking, and transportion of dino;
* Emission issues of burning dino (although diesel is pretty bad);
* The perception that millennials don't want to harm the environment with cars and vis-a-vis motorbikes, and therefore withhold such investments while living in urban centers;
* The perception that Harleys [traditionally] give motorcycling a poor image to young generation would-be purchasers (i.e. air and non-factory noise pollution);
* New motorcycling purchases have been declining worldwide for over the past 20 years (I think more);
* And, conversely, worldwide (and likely excluding North America) scooters have become more popular than ever, more fuel efficient, faster, better looking, quieter, better handling, ultra low maintenance, all season, and convenient.
On this trend it won't be long before people say, "Oooooo, he rides a gas burning motorcycle ... we won't associate with him. Shun, shun." This is somewhat like the stigma of traditional smoking.
In addition, all the yadda regarding self-driving vehicles of all nature: Cars, trucks, buses. How long will it take to work out all the kinks in artificial intelligence and how many lives will it cost to get there? Well, eventually we will get there because business wants it there. There is money to be made in services - lots of it.
But wouldn't this drive demand for motorcycling upward as people **yearn** even more control of their transport freedom? Well sure. Maybe F-150 owners will cling tooth and nail until gas is $12 per gallon and rationed because fossil fuel is out-of-fashion. Or some tax is added to vehicle purchases to get people to ween off dino.
But the fossil fuel bike would still be harming the environment, upsetting AI-motivated vehicles, and generate less and less revenue for the bike manufacturers.
It is my understanding that brands like BMW and Honda are already road-mapping themselves out of the dino car and motorbike business because the numbers are declining. This is profound. I did not make this up. Sure, everybody could eventually manufacture in India or China, but it cannot go on forever. Costs have to bottom at some point. So the road map changes.
Motorbikes (and cars) are already not allowed in city core Paris and a few other European centers.
It will be interesting to see how this really unfolds for current and future riders. Will everyone ride electric scooters? Dunno.
One thing that I foresee as not changing too much is the demand for off-road motorbikes. Yes there is the Zero, but dino-powered off-road rides will always be in demand in areas that has not been paved over by civilization (Mars comes to mind).
Thoughts?
I'm pretty neutral on electric vehicles and would certainly consider an electric motorcycle. In fact, if I was still active in Trials riding, I would probably own an electric trials bike.
That said, it seems with electric vehicles we are just swapping carbon emissions you can see (tailpipe) with carbon emissions you can’t see (production of electricity).
63% of the electricity generated in the United States is generated from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas and coal. Dino is not eliminated.
Nuclear and hydro (dams) make up 27% of electrical production, but the chance of increased production from these sources is effectively nil. Kudos to France by the way, 78% of their electrical production is nuclear.
That only leaves wind and solar as viable sources to shift away from fossil fuels. I hope they are successful, but I think dino will be here for a long time.
One other thing, manufacturing emissions for electric vehicles, like Tesla, are 68 percent higher than for conventional cars primarily due to environmental impact of lithium mining and battery production.
I'm pretty neutral on electric vehicles and would certainly consider an electric motorcycle. In fact, if I was still active in Trials riding, I would probably own an electric trials bike.
That said, it seems with electric vehicles we are just swapping carbon emissions you can see (tailpipe) with carbon emissions you can’t see (production of electricity).
63% of the electricity generated in the United States is generated from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas and coal. Dino is not eliminated.
Nuclear and hydro (dams) make up 27% of electrical production, but the chance of increased production from these sources is effectively nil. Kudos to France by the way, 78% of their electrical production is nuclear.
That only leaves wind and solar as viable sources to shift away from fossil fuels. I hope they are successful, but I think dino will be here for a long time.
One other thing, manufacturing emissions for electric vehicles, like Tesla, are 68 percent higher than for conventional cars primarily due to environmental impact of lithium mining and battery production.
This +1
From what I understand the factories that create these batteries have wasteland around them from the emissions, not to mention the cost of shipping components around to complete said battery. Seems like a wash to me.
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - baxtercat_imp - 11-12-2018
I suspect Mr. P is right. I grew up with vinyl records, and now have CDs and MP3s and streaming services and satellite radio, but they're still also making records for those of us who may also have a turntable. Ditto film photography--not the dominant technology anymore, but a small industry still supplies those who want to do black-and-white darkroom stuff. When electric and hydrogen vehicles have become the norm, we'll still have our old internal combustion bikes on the road, and with vehicle emissions in general now reduced, there will be little incentive to regulate them. It's not government conspiracies--it's market forces. Perhaps boutique makers will still be coming out with limited numbers of new, expensive models to supply whatever demand remains. These operators won't be shunned, any more than the guy who today brings his Model T or 65 Mustang out on the road on weekends. I expect to see dino bikes on the road as long as I'm still alive, and into the future, consumers will no doubt decide whether there is demand for these vehicles and any residual refining of dinosaurs to go in them.
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - LongRanger_imp - 11-12-2018
I agree with Baxtercat.
This may be politically incorrect, but I don't care: Until China and India begin to curtail their pollution, I'm not going to waste my time trying to save the environment. I'll keep buying and riding gas-powered vehicles for as long as I can, and until I'm no longer required to pay fees to recycle my trash, I'll keep tossing my bottles and cans onto the landfill.
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - RockHop_imp - 11-12-2018
If we call the CB a "dino bike", does that refer to fuel or the rider?
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - peterbaron - 11-12-2018
(11-12-2018, 05:05 AM)RockHop_imp Wrote: If we call the CB a "dino bike", does that refer to fuel or the rider?
To fuel/bike only, cuz rider is just cranking up RPM, without any significant effort..most of the hard work is done by CB itself, after absorbing fuel ...
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - the Ferret - 11-12-2018
Interesting things to think about. To me the experience of riding, the feeling of the wind in my face, the feeling of exposure, the leaning and accelerating and braking supersedes the noise, vibration, smell and use of fossil fuels. I believe I could easily make the transition to electric vehicles if that were all that was available. I have already ridden a Zero motorcycle and other than a whining sound I didn't find it much different that riding an ice bike. They are even making e bikes pretty attractive these days. When they figure out charging times, locations and range I think it will be a no brainer.
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - baxtercat_imp - 11-12-2018
(11-12-2018, 05:01 AM)LongRanger_imp Wrote: I agree with Baxtercat.
This may be politically incorrect, but I don't care: Until China and India begin to curtail their pollution, I'm not going to waste my time trying to save the environment. I'll keep buying and riding gas-powered vehicles for as long as I can, and until I'm no longer required to pay fees to recycle my trash, I'll keep tossing my bottles and cans onto the landfill.
Yes, LR, but it's like comparing watermelons and walnuts. Motorcycles, esp. the leisure-activity motorcycles we ride in the US, are neither major consumers of gas nor major producers of emissions. Cars and trucks are. Coal-fired power plants are a much bigger problem than motorcycles in the US. And this is true in places like China and India in particular. But it's easy to confuse questions of technology with questions of economy. We've had the technology for electric and hydrogen vehicles for some time now, and with just a bit of commitment from industry, that technology can quickly advance (as battery technology is now advancing with Tesla etc). But we still have a massive infrastructure built around gasoline technology: not just the making of cars, but repair shops and their technicians, testing, parts suppliers, gas stations, refineries, distribution of gasoline and diesel to stations, oil exploration and drilling, transportation of crude through pipelines and on ships, and so on. Large segments of the economy are involved, and some big and powerful corporations, and neither governments nor those industries are anxious to just give this all up. For that matter, our foreign policy is all caught up in making sure the oil keeps flowing our way, cheaply. When it's no longer cheap or dependable or acceptable for consumers, the "new" cleaner technologies will quickly be brought on, and the infrastructure for it (charging stations, hydrogen stations, electric bike repairmen) will quickly develop as well. In many ways, the new technology is clearly better and safer than what we have now, and will only improve. When the switch is made, places like China and India will have to switch as well, or get left behind the rest of the world economically (like Cuba did). No use waiting for them to fall in line. You are already saving the environment in a way, when you ride your CB to get milk at the store instead of a two-ton pickup or SUV.
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - Jim21680_imp - 11-12-2018
Even at the age of 38, I'm not worried about it for myself, or even the next few generations. But someday, the Earth will give up its last barrel of crude oil....and long before that, it will have become absurdly expensive.
That said, I'm all for the advancement of battery and electric power....but I still don't think that's the long-term answer. I've read many articles that claim even if electric vehicles were to be produced as wide-scale as the petroleum equivalents, there isn't enough Lithium on Earth to supply the demand. Not even close!
It's scary to see how much we depend on petroleum. We've built our entire economies and lives around it, and both of them cease to function as we know it, if petroleum goes away.
So, eventually in the long-term future, I think we'll see huge advancements in solar and hydrogen power, but do they have limitations? I don't know.
Like, is a hydrogen-powered motorcycle physically possible and practical? Safe? Affordable?? It's crazy to wonder such things.
As human population continues to expand exponentially, it would be really interesting to pick up a history book a thousand years from now.
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - Cormanus - 11-12-2018
Some Australian scientists have invented a way of safely transporting hydrogen that they believe will make it a whole lot easier to make it widely available for use in vehicles. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-08/hydrogen-fuel-breakthrough-csiro-game-changer-export-potential/10082514
LongRanger, I'm astounded to hear you don't have free recycling in the US. Here we get a bin full of bottles, hard plastics, paper and cardboard taken away every two weeks and no extra cost. They'll even give you an extra bin for AU$30 and take it away too if you need it. We recycle way more than we send to landfill these days and, if everything one buys wasn't over packaged, we'd send less of both.
RE: ** Death knell of motorcycling as we know it. ** - the Ferret - 11-12-2018
We too get a big bin for recycling, but I believe we have to pay extra for pickup as it's two separate trucks. The trash truck comes every week, the recycling truck only comes once a month.